Geografia społeczna i kontury historii: podziały historyczne Białorusi w świetle danych statystyki społecznej, medycznej i demograficznej
[ format B5, s. 170, ilustracje, bibliografia, streszczenie w języku angielskim ]
Rozdział I. Wprowadzenie do problemu
1.1. Regionalne zróżnicowanie struktur społecznych jako generator rozwoju nauki o społeczeństwie — pierwsze teorie, pierwsze sprzeczności
1.2. Stabilność regionalnych wskaźników samobójstw: pytania o przyczyny
1.3. Paradoks albański — regionalne zróżnicowanie stopy umieralności pomiędzy północą i południem
Rozdział II. Metodologiczne i teoretyczne podstawy porównawczej analizy wskaźników regionalnych
2.1. Kluczowe zagadnienie teoretyczne i ich ograniczenie. Tradycje kulturowe i struktury historii: Czy istnieje możliwość ich zróżnicowania?
2.2. Cel, materiał i paradygmat badawczy
2.3. Specyfika porównawczych badań regionalnych na Białorusi
2.4. Możliwości i ograniczenie analizy wskaźników regionalnych — metodologiczne założenia pracy
Rozdział III. Podziały etnohistoryczne i regionalne zróżnicowanie na osi północ–południe
3.1. Szkic z historii etnicznej: regionalne odmienności struktur antropologicznych
3.2. Zróżnicowanie regionalne współczynnika umieralności z przyczyn zewnętrznych: samobójstw, zabójstw i zatrucia alkoholem
3.3. Epidemiologia chorób onkologicznych i jej zróżnicowanie na osi północ–południe
3.4. Cukrzyca u dzieci i niektóre inne ilustracje podziału północ–południe na Białorusi
3.5. Zmienność wskaźników demograficznych na osi północ–południe
Rozdział IV. Regionalne zróżnicowanie na osi wschód–zachód
4.1. Zróżnicowanie na osi wschód–zachód jako skutek wpływów cywilizacyjnych
4.2. Podziały regionalne na Białorusi na poziomie obwodów kraju
4.3. Zróżnicowanie społeczne i kulturowe w obwodach mińskim i witebskim
4.4. Zróżnicowanie historycznych regionów Ukrainy
Rozdział V. Wskaźniki regionalne w toku historii
5.1. Krzyżowanie się wpływów historycznych
5.2. Analiza regionalnych zależności wskaźników samobójstw i zabójstw: możliwości stosowania podejścia historycznego
5.3. Konserwatyzm i radykalizm jako tradycja regionalna
5.4. Proces historyczny a zespołowość cech populacji regionalnych
Rozdział VI. Historia jako system: granice strukturalne i czasowe, systemowa mierzalność historii
Rozdział VII. Priorytety badań populacyjnych: pytania i perspektywy
Ryciny i tabele
Summary in English
The present work — “Social Geography and the Contours of History” — deals with a sphere which is a common field for many sciences about man and society. The work aims to analyze regional distribution of a set of medical, demographic and social indicators in their connections with the former historical divisions, which existed on the territory of the modern East European states: Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. It is based on the official statistical data obtained from national and local governmental institutions.
In the present study a rather simple methodology has been employed: the distribution of various social indices was analyzed in connection with the former historical divisions (or historical borders), which existed in the Eastern Europe. The actual indicators juxtaposed with the map of the former historical borders make it possible to see the continuous influence of the two separate historical factors. The first factor, related to the specificity of ethnic composition, can be called ethno–historical. Regional manifestations of this factor are related to the ethnic map of the Eastern Europe, the formation of which, chronologically, dates back to the early medieval period.
The second factor, social and cultural, has a noticeable connection with the historical divisions and manifests itself in the functioning of cultural mechanisms. Its influence is confi ned for the most part to the social and geographical areas of historical confl ict and interaction between the European civilization on the one hand and the Russian Orthodox civilization on the other. The regional analysis has revealed a historical dimension in the spatial distribution of social indicators, i.e. the existence of long historical frames which determine the specific regional characteristics transmitted across generations. It is suggested that in the historical time and space some resistant structures are functioning, which may be called “macrostructures of history” and which are in fact very close to what Braudel had in mind introducing his concept of longue duree. These structures still manifest themselves in spite of the enormous social changes which took place in the course of centuries.
The magnitude of such historical structures is really startling, their functioning involves different spheres of social reality and they become apparent in patterns of geographical distribution of social and demographic indicators. It is necessary to stress that only a comparison of regional social indices makes historical frames visible. The analysis demonstrates the role of the historical factor in the formation of stable constellations in social and geographic space. In other words, the comparison of regional data sets is a reliable tool to show how historical processes operate in the physical space and mould a society into specific forms. Social and demographic variations present on the territory of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia give spectacular possibilities for such kind of studies. On this territory, enormous in comparison with the rest of Europe, the relationship between the geography of social and demographic indicators and the history of territorial divisions appears to be most revealing. These three countries, formerly constituent of the USSR and earlier — of the Russian Empire, have many common historical features. It is a unique social space where a certain degree of social and economic homogeneity was achieved under the Soviet rule. At the same time, these countries have noticeable distinctions in their ethnic history. Moreover, the territory of Belarus and Ukraine is an area of interaction of two different civilizations, in Huntington’s terms: the European one, which spread its influence from the west, and the Russian
Orthodox one, which advanced from the east.
History has been shaping the social space of each country in a particular manner. Thus, on the territory of Belarus the crossing of influence of the two historical factors is evident. Ethno–historical parameters change from south to north, while the socio–cultural ones vary from east to west. In Ukraine both gradients have the same direction, and therefore a complex polarity between eastern and western regions has formed. In the European Russia where such a socio–cultural division is absent (it is the area of a single civilization) we can see manifestations of the ethno–historical gradient which, like in Belarus, has south to north direction. Regularities in the regional distribution of a large number of social, demographic and medical indicators make certain historical patterns visible. It seems logical to admit that history has affected the social stratum itself, not the particular areas of social life or isolated social indicators; at least only such a mechanism can be reasonably accepted. Thus, similarity in the geographical distribution of etiologically different
indicators can be clarified with reference to the historical past.
Despite the fact that we assume the existence of a historical determinant in the social space formation, the precise character of the etiological relationship for the majority of indicators remains obscure. This reservation refers mostly to the group of ethno–historical, or anthropological indicators. Regional correlations between so different indicators as suicide rate, cancer mortality rate, children diabetes incidence rate, birth rate and so on would seem spuri-
ous at all. Still, the fact that geographical variation of such indices corresponds with anthropological areas existing on the territory of each country is of principal interest. The formation of these areas was a result of inter–ethnic mixing which took place in the early history. On the territory of Belarus the main gradient of ethno–historical and anthropological variations has north to south direction, and therefore the population of the two regions, Brest region (south–west) and Vitebsk region (north–east) has noticeable anthropological differences. The analysis demonstrates that regional variation in a number of social and demographic indicators corresponds with the anthropological (and ethno–historical) polarity between the regions. This means that Brest and Vitebsk regions are polar both in respect of anthropological and socio–demographic composition of population. The geographical correspondence can not be
considered a proof of an etiological relationship between ethno–historical processes and the actual differences in the socio–demographic indices. However, establishing such historically determined regularities may generate a useful heuristic and theoretical basis for further research.
The correlations between social indicators which demonstrate the influence of socio–cultural distinctions formed in the more recent history do not look so improbable. Variation of the socio–cultural parameters has west to east direction. The main frame of reference for our analysis was the borderline which divided Belarus and Ukraine into the eastern and western parts before the beginning of the World War II. The correspondent regional differences in divorce rates, illegitimacy, syphilis incidence rates and number of religious communities can be explained in terms of regional cultural specifi city. However, the seeming theoretical simplicity of this case is rather misleading, for we cannot say neither, what are the distinctions in the mechanism of intergenerational cultural transmission in the western and eastern regions nor, what group inside the each region’s population is the carrier of cultural values. This vagueness is due mostly to the dispersion of cultural characteristics in the population.
Multifactor nature of social indices creates a real problem for regional comparison. Thus, in the case of Belarus, where the two historical factors are crossing, we see that a large group of indices varies in both directions at once. This group includes regional indices of homicide, lethal alcohol intoxication, percentage of orphans and some indicators of electoral behavior. In Ukraine where the direction of the two historical gradients is the same all these indices vary only from east to west. Comparative analysis of statistical data taken by regions is a new way to elucidate the functioning of long historical frames. The present study demonstrates that stable regional variations in social indices can be viewed as specific markers of long historical structures. These variations allow us “to see the invisible”, i.e. with their help we obtain a vision of some stable historical formations (or historical structures).
The rise of such formations can be caused by large–scale historical collisions or it may be a long–term effect of a historical trauma. Anyway, these formations survive through the centuries and are still functional nowadays. However, it is impossible to reduce the historical process to some primary forms. History, as well as biological evolution, constantly multiplies differences, which are a constructional material for further development. The present discussion is related to the problem of historical determinism in human behavior. The author endorses the statement well known in social and natural sciences, namely that human behavior (also in its historical dimension) is simultaneously deterministic and indeterministic in its origins. Implementation of a systemic approach in the realm of history can help to define more precisely the patterns of deterministic mechanisms, for the processes which take place in the historical space do not correspond with the temporal and spatial dimensions of the everyday human activity. That is why historical analysis needs a proper systemic framework.
Historical structures are material; they materialize through the mechanisms of mental and psychosocial activity. What role is played here by the unconscious? It is difficult to say for sure. Nevertheless, the outcomes of the present study show that this role is by no means insignificant. The graphic material constitutes the major and the most signifi cant part of this study, so below are given some comments to the figures 1–32. Figures 1 and 2 represent a schematic historical division between the western and eastern regions of Belarus and Ukraine. Data from the four regions — two southern regions: Brest (brzeski) and Homel (homelski) and two regions on the north–east of the country: Vitebsk (witebski) and Mahileu (mohylewski) were chosen to demonstrate the complex south–north polarity. This data set includes regional death rate from accidental reasons in total (Fig. 3), indices suicide rate (Fig. 4), homicide rate (Fig. 5), cancer incidence and mortality rates separately for urban and rural dwellers (Fig. 16-19), standardized
cancer incidence rate (Fig. 20), children’s insulin–dependent diabetes rates (Fig. 21), birth rate (Fig. 22), death rate (Fig. 23) and natural increase (Fig. 24).
Furthermore, the polarity between Brest and Vitebsk regions remains unchanged even when the parameters of age, sex and place of residence (urban vs. rural) are taken into account. Thus for males, controlling for age (with five–year intervals) and urban/rural residence, the evident difference between north and south is observed in the rates of lethal alcohol intoxication, suicide and homicide as well as in the death rate from accidental reasons in total; data for urban areas are shown in figures 8–11 and data for rural areas in figures 12–15, respectively.
The social and cultural polarity between the eastern (Brest and Hrodna) and the western (Homel and Mahileu) regions of Belarus is manifested by crime rates (Fig. 29), divorce rates (Fig. 30), illegitimacy rates for urban (Fig. 31) as well as for rural areas (Fig. 32), percentage of orphans (Fig. 33) and syphilis incidence rate (Fig. 34). Table 17 demonstrates social and demographic differences between the three historical regions of Ukraine. The indicators include suicide rate, divorces, standardized mortality rate for men, homicide rate, percentage of votes in support of a communist candidate, voter turnout and percentage of believers.